Wednesday, January 9, 2008

POLLS - Where does GOP Stand in MI, NV, SC, & FL

Okay so now that we have New Hampshire out of the way it is time to look forward at where we stand in the next four contests

First up is Michigan. There have been no new polls here in the past three weeks-a month. So let's use the RCP average:

Romney - 19.8%
Huckabee - 18.8%
McCain - 13.0%
Guliani - 12.5%

EDIT - New poll just released by Rossman out of Michigan HUCK LEADS!!

Huckabee - 23%
Romney - 22%
McCain - 18%

As New Hampshire had the Independents Michigan has the Dems. Only Hillary is on the ballot and there is a movement by Obama supporters to cross over and vote for Huckabee. Very interesting!

In Nevada no new polls have come out in a month So we will also use the RCP average:

Guiliani - 23.7%
Romney - 23.7%
Huckabee 15.3%

By the time the last polls were taken Huckaboom was beginning and his rise was dramatic. The very low polling from before November hurts his average. I expect to see higher numbers from Huck and McCain as well with new poll numbers.

Things are even more rosy for Huck in The Palmetto State. Three recent polls have come out in the last few days and Huck enjoys a big lead in the RCP average!

Huckabee - 32.3%
McCain - 19.7%
Romney - 16.0%

Florida is quite key and will be shaped by the three states voting before it does on the 29th of January. Florida is supposedly Rudy's stronghold but his numbers in Florida and nationally are taking a nosedive. Will he be able to right the ship and win? If not he's toast! Things are closer than before in the RCP average:

Guiliani - 26.5%
Huckabee - 21.3%
Romney - 16.5%
McCain - 14.3%

There are some recent polls that are not included in the average that show Huck leading and Rudy tanking. Apparently RCP doesn't trust them. Florida is unknown at this point. It is likely that there will be candidates out of the race by this point (Thompson...maybe Romney too). We'll just have to wait and see.

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