New hampshire Fallout

Wow! New Hampshire was fun wasn't it? NH has changed everything and the crystal ball looks muddy at this point. Even minutes before the returns came in last night we were betting the farm on an Obama blowout of Clinton. that did not happen. Of course we did expect a McCain victory and that did happen. With 96% of Precincts reporting here's the numbers:

GOP:
McCain - 37%
Romney - 32%
Huckabee - 11%
Guiliani - 9%
Paul - 8%
Thompson - 1%

Dems:

Clinton - 39%
Obama - 37%
Edwards - 17%
Richardson - 5%
Kucinich - 1%

So what does it all mean? Well the Clinton surprise changes everything in the Democratic race. Before last night it was all but certain that Obama would sweep to the nomination. Not so fast my friend! We now have a Battle Royale on our hands. The win last night has revived Clinton's campaign and given it brand new life. It has also kept John Edwards around for South Carolina (which he won in 2004). Between New Hampshire and South Carolina is Michigan (who will vote for Clinton even though they've lost all their delegates), and Nevada (where Clinton has a big lead right now). If Edwards wins South Carolina again (not likely but possible) we might see a brokered convention in late August.

Now to the GOP. Huckabee won Iowa. Romney won Wyoming. McCain won New Hampshire. More importantly Mitt Romney lost both Iowa and New Hampshire where he was leading big two-three months ago. Romney is down to his last out. That last out is Michigan (where he was born and his father was Governor). It's going to be a three-man race between McCain, Romney, and Huckabee. I am very anxious to see some new polls from Michigan. Nevada is anyone's guess at this point. South Carolina looks like Huckabee's to lose. Florida, Rudy's last stand is showing signs of the Huckaboom. It's looking rather good for Huckabee right now but things could change and we must keep working hard.

It is distinctively possible at this point that one or both parties could have brokered conventions. Incredible