Monday, December 31, 2007

Three Days To Go

There are now three days left before Iowans go to Caucus. I don't know if I will have fingernails or hair left but we'll see what happens. It's getting really heated out there as we reach the climax of what has been a six month buildup (it's probably been longer) to the Nominating season. So what's going to happen and how will it shape the race to come? Here are my guesses.

First up are the Dems. There is a three horse-race in Iowa between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. The polls are showing a dead heat between the three of them. Whoever gets a better turnout may win. But there is a wrench in that statement. There are several second-tier candidates. Unlike the GOP Caucuses, Each candidate must have 15% of the people at their table or you have to mvoe to another candidates group. Who will these supporters go to. That's what will ultimately decide who wins and loses. If Hillary wins than you can almost give her the nomination. However all bets are off if Edwards or Obamam wins. It is conceivable for Senator Clinton to finish 3rd. If that happens it may be all over for her. Between Obama and Edwards I think Obama has the much better shot to take a win in Iowa as a springboard for the nomination.

As for the GOP it is quite clear. Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney are fighting a very tough hard battle for 1st in Iowa. The candidate that doesn't get 1st will come in 2nd. The big question is who will finish third. I think there are three candidates that could land that spot - Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul. Who needs it more? Fred does. He is almost out of cash. He barely had enough to run ads in Iowa this week. He needs a 3rd place finish to fill his piggy bank or he is toast. He might drop out after Iowa if he doesn't finish well. John McCain (the new National poll leader according to Rasmussen) isn't really playing much in Iowa but he is starting to poll better. John's main focus is New Hampshire (where he is today). A 3rd place finish in Iowa would pretty much sew up NH for John. but don't underestimate the Paulites. Out of all the organizations I think Ron Paul has the biggest in Iowa from all around the country. They are going to fight for every vote. He won't take votes away from any other candidate because I think their focus is college students and people who would stay home and don't care otherwise. Don't be surprised to see Ron Paul get a 3rd or 4th place finish when all is said and done.

I feel that Iowa could come down to a handful of votes on both sides. It's sure going to be fun to watch. Pas the popcorn please!

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