Pass the popcorn - This is getting good!

Back when i started this blog in the summer if you told me the race to the nomination in both parties was going to be this fluid I would have said "You are crazy-go-nuts!" However this is exactly what is happening. We are dealing with the longest and most unprecedented Presidential election cycle in history. We are now starting to see the effects of that in December. We are nearing the one-year point for the process and the American people are growing weary of the frontrunners and maybe the process itself. Both America's Mayor, Rudy Guiliani and New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who have been leading their respective packs for what seems like years are free-falling back to Earth in the polls. I don't know which fall is more surprising.

On the Democrat side of things Hillary has been the perceived and assumed nominee from almost the beginning (perhaps since Thanksgiving of 2004 if not 2006). Illinois Senator Barack Obama became "The Rock Star" when he announced his run but fell back. With his new endorsement of Oprah he is gainging steam and momentum. Also smelling blood now is North Carlina Senator John Edwards. Iowa's Caucus process makes this very interesting. A candidate must receive 15% of the vote in each precinct. Supporters of those candidates that don't garner the required support choose between the candidates that do (actually they get a chance to do so). Bad news for Clinton is that the 2nd choice of the 2nd tier supporters is John Edwards. It's not of the realm of possibility that Senator Clinton could come out of Iowa with a 3rd place finish! The shockwaves that would send around the country might cause an entire city's buildings to implode or spontaneously combust! if Hillary holds on in Iowa she wins. If not then it is anyone's game (my guess would be Obama)!

On the GOP side Iowa seems a little less important but that will be entirely known after the process is finished. After leading the pack for months Rudy Guiliani is also fading and falling back to Earth. In Iowa where America's Mayor really isn't playing there is a new leader in former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Bad news for Rudy is that he now trails Mike nationally. The strategy Rudy placed for his campaign is showing chinks. Rudy's strategy is to hold on for dear life until Florida on January 29th which he is strongly supported (but Huck now is in 2nd behind him there all of a sudden). It's becoming more and more likely that Guiliani needs New Hampshire which is Mitt Romney territory (John McCain must do well there of he is finished). At this point it looks like Huckabee vs Romney in Iowa. In New Hampshire Romney vs Guiliani/McCain/Huckabee (he is gaining here too). Rudy will probably win Nevada (which is small potatoes at this point). Wyoming's caucus is anyone's guess (I haven't seen any polling from there...they are wild enough to give Ron Paul a win which wouldn't surprise me at all). Mitt and Rudy are strong in Michigan (but Huck may be gaining there too we'll see what the next poll spits out). The tide is turning in South Carolina for Mike Huckabee and may be actor Fred Thompson & Senator John McCain's last stand. What happens in January will have a drastic effect on Super Tuesday (February 5th) which for all intensive purposes will determine the nomination.

Regardless this is going to fun to watch. We are a month before the fireworks start. Get ready and buckle your seatbelts!